Future Projections of Extreme Precipitation Climate Indices over South America Based on CORDEX-CORE Multimodel Ensemble
نویسندگان
چکیده
Climate change is undeniable, and its effects, like droughts intense precipitation, evidence this reality. However, many questions remain unanswered, such as climate extremes’ future frequency intensity. International collaboration projects the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Coordinated Output for Evaluations (CORE) have emerged to address these questions, creating protocols facilitate intercomparison among simulations obtained by different regional models (RCMs). Given context, study aims describe projected changes in extreme precipitation events over South America domain using a set of projections three RCMs (Eta, RegCM, REMO) under CORDEX-CORE framework (except Eta). These were nested global (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) RCP8.5 scenario integrated with grid space 25 km. In addition, six indices (PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p, P95, CDD, CWD) computed season historical period (1995–2014) four time-slices (2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, 2080–2099). For brevity, focuses on austral summer. are generally capable representing spatial pattern but differences The ensemble all shows slightly better correlation reference data than each RCM. signal similar between RegCM REMO and, general, opposite Eta (mainly Atlantic Convergence Zone region). Of analyzed, performed statistically significant negative (positive) trends Amazon (La Plata Basin), indicating dry (wet) conditions increasing towards end century. Furthermore, both regions positive (negative) consecutive days. region higher uncertainties lies southeastern Brazil, where REMO, wet one.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2073-4433']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091463